Marine Environmental Prediction

Projects are listed alphabetically by Principal Investigator

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Garrett, Chris

University of Victoria

($258,339 over three years, awarded 2003)

Project Title: Analysis and parameterization of wave breaking at sea

Wave breaking, evidenced by whitecaps, is intimately involved in a large number of air-sea interaction processes of fundamental scientific, technological and operational importance. Wave breaking ultimately limits the wave growth, and plays a key role in exchanging energy, heat and gases between the atmosphere and the ocean and in mixing the upper ocean. This project aims to link the probability and scales of wave breaking to the underlying wave field. Analysis of an existing data set, and interpretation of the results guided by complementary modeling studies of the evolution of the wave field, will have wide applications to marine weather forecasts, climate studies, assessment of oil spills and wave forecasts.

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Greatbatch, Richard

Dalhousie University 

($206,000 over three years, awarded 2001, completed September 2004)

Project Title: Development of a coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system with application to the extratropical transition of Atlantic Hurricanes

Several Atlantic hurricanes affect eastern Canada during the course of a year.  They are associated with heavy rainfall, high winds and storm surges along the coast.  Storms that undergo extratropical transition rapidly re-intensify as they move northward. This research will improve the prediction of extratropical transitions and their environmental impacts, and thereby help with planning of mitigation measures to lessen damage. The project will produce a coupled atmosphere/ocean modeling system for use as part of a marine environmental prediction system.  The system will help in studying the extratropical transition of Atlantic hurricanes. 

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Gyakum, John

McGill University 

($213,000 over three years, awarded 2001, completed July 2005)

Project Title: Diagnostic analyses of water vapour, and its dynamical impact on extratropical transitions affecting eastern Canada

Hurricanes represent one of the most destructive weather systems in the world. They affect Canada as they travel northward, becoming known as extratropical transitions (ETs). An ET may first weaken, and then re-intensify, bringing high winds, torrential rain and flooding to coastal regions of the Atlantic provinces or even inland. To improve forecasts, the physical mechanisms of ET must be understood. The project involves diagnostic studies and sensitivity experiments to determine the parameters that influence hurricane intensity and transition.  The research focuses on water vapour, the crucial energy source for these dangerous systems, and how it affects the structure and dynamics of the ET. It also includes analysis of conventional and field data, and modeling of the ET.

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Hillaire-Marcel, Claude

Université du Québec à Montréal 

($417,000 over three years, awarded 2001, completed July 2005)

Project Title: An oscillatory Arctic Sea ice cover:  the millennial year scale factor controlling the rates of intermediate versus deep North Atlantic water formation?

Recent experiments predict a collapse in the formation of intermediate/deep water in the Labrador Sea in the near future, due to climate warming. The formation of Labrador Sea water is a major pump, driving global oceanic circulation: if it were to collapse this would have major impacts on the climate system. The project will help verify the hypothesis that the formation rate of these waters in the Labrador Sea is linked to sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean and to the routing of outflowing fresh waters into the North Atlantic. Geological archives will be used to study the 1500-year oscillation of the ocean-climate system in the North, and to determine natural climate trends. Hydrographic conditions will be reconstructed for past warm periods in the North, during which the formation of Labrador Sea water was inoperative or reduced. These reconstructions are important tools for validating ocean models.  

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Hsieh, William

University of British Columbia 

($227,500 over three years, awarded 2001, completed May 2005)

Project Title: Equatorial coupled models

The equatorial Pacific plays a majestic role in global climate, thanks to the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.  While Canada is separated by distance from the equatorial Pacific, the strongest signal in Canadian winter climate anomalies is still the ENSO signal, which influences air temperature and precipitation in Canada as well as prairie wheat yield and the survival and migration of salmon. This project will develop dynamical, hybrid coupled models with sophisticated data assimilation for the equatorial Pacific. The better seasonal forecasts that result will permit 2-tier forecasting of the Canadian seasonal climate by the Canadian Meteorological Centre and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis. Modelers at the Institute for Ocean Sciences will also improve climate modeling and prediction of the extra-tropical Pacific Ocean.

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Karsten, Richard

Acadia University

($164,750 over three years, awarded 2003)

Project Title: Analysis of Argo float data to examine Antarctic Intermediate Water formation

Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) is the largest body of low salinity waters found at depths of 1000m to 2000m over the majority of the global oceans. This water is isolated from contact with the atmosphere; its relatively constant temperature, salt content, and concentration of dissolved gases contributes to its function as a sink for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHG). Recent findings showing that AAIW intermediate waters are warming, freshening and becoming shallow, caution of a possible disastrous outgassing of previous sequestered GHG’s. This research explores the formation process of AAIW by examining the data set from a set of six Argo floats that were deployed off the coast of Chile in December 2002. The results will have profound effects on predictions of the role of AAIW in climate change.

Kelley, Dan

Dalhousie University

Project Title: Internal Waves in an Estuarine Environment: from Generation to Mixing

($ 285, 000 over 3 years)

Below the sea surface, waves may ride along the interface between dense lower waters and more buoyant upper waters. These so-called internal waves may cause ocean mixing, which in turn has a significant influence on circulation, pollutant dispersal, and ecosystem dynamics. Unfortunately, the mixing cannot be simulated adequately in numerical models, which is a problem for the development of marine policy based on such models. The first step towards including internal-wave mixing in models is to build an understanding of the dynamics of the process. This project does that by studying internal wave generation, propagation, and destruction at test sites in the St. Lawrence Estuary and in the Saguenay Fjord. The goal is to lead the way to more reliability of marine environmental prediction for the area.

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Kelley, Dan

Dalhousie University 

($155,500 over three years, awarded 2002)

Project Title: Ocean Mixing:  Internal Waves near Steep Topography

Internal wave systems are important because they provide a vertical transport mechanism in the ocean for both heat and nutrient fluxes within regional and global ecosystems. This research looks at internal wave mixing near a region of steep oceanic topography.

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Lamb, Kevin

University of Waterloo

($208,900 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title: Parametrization of internal solitary wave mixing in the coastal ocean for use in hydrostatic numerical models

Dr. Lamb's research focuses on the role of waves in the complex mixing of coastal waters. High-frequency, solitary-like waves are an important yet poorly-understood player in the transportation and dispersion of ocean nutrients and contaminants. The strong currents caused by these waves affect offshore structures and ocean acoustics. Dr. Lamb is developing parametrizations of the effects of internal solitary-like waves for use in hydrostatic models. This will improve our ability to predict the impact of the waves on coastal marine environments.

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Patterson, Tim

Carleton University

($598,800 over three years, awarded 2001)

Project Title: High Resolution Holocene Paleoclimatic and Paleoceanographic Records from Anoxic Basins Along the British Columbia Coast

Earth’s climate is highly variable and this natural variability must be understood for reliable predictions of future climates are to be made. The project will identify past changes in atmospheric and ocean conditions, and their timing over the last 2000 years. A combination of oceanographic, sedimentological, geochemical and micropaleontological methods will be used to identify and correlate long and short-term climate cycles.  The results will help policy makers recognize and adapt to changes due to human activity, and show how changes along the B.C. coast have affected the productivity and distribution of fish stocks. A better understanding of natural climate cycles will help the commercial fishing industry to respond more strategically to natural variations in fish stocks.

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Ruddick, Barry

Dalhousie University 

($118,929 over three years, awarded 2001)

Project Title: Observational Testing and Comparison of Turbulence Closures on the Scotian Shelf

Weather forecasts for coastal regions can sometimes be wrong because the computer forecast models use incorrect models of ocean turbulence and mixing. The researchers will work with colleagues at the Bedford Institute of Oceanography to make observations of upper ocean mixing in a key location and will use the results to test computer algorithms.  This will help determine which algorithms work best in the Scotian Shelf region. The knowledge will help forecasters. 

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Sheng, Jinyu

Dalhousie University 

($116,500 over three years, awarded 2001)

Project Title: A relocatable nested shelf circulation model with application to the Eastern Canadian Shelf

Growing commercial activity along the eastern seaboard is increasing demand for detailed information on circulation and variability on the Scotian Shelf, especially that associated with extreme storm events. The project will develop an ocean shelf circulation model, to study general circulation and seasonal variability on the Shelf and to determine extreme currents resulting from storms (e.g. around Sable Island).  The results will help in assessing environmental impacts on the Atlantic fishery, offshore oil and gas companies, the Canadian Coast Guard and others involved in marine activities.

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Stacey, Michael

Royal Military College of Canada

($290,500 over three years, awarded 2002)

Project Title: Assimilation of Argo Floats in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

The Argo floats provide oceanographers with a unique set of observations that can be added to land or sea observations to give vastly improved forecasts. Canada has Argo floats in the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean as well as further afield. Project scientists in this initiative are assessing Pacific Ocean float data in partnership with researchers at the Institute of Ocean Sciences in Sidney, British Columbia.

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Thompson, Keith

Dalhousie University

($224,000 over three years, awarded 2002)

Project Title: Assimilation of Upper Ocean Data into a Model of the North Atlantic

Canada participates in the international Argo program, which involves floats that drift with ocean currents throughout the world’s oceans. Every ten days, these floats transmit information via satellite on ocean currents, temperature, and salinity. This research project involves the assimilation and analysis of large quantities of hydrographic data from the floats. The information will allow the development of a coupled atmosphere-ocean computer model, which will be used for predicting and forecasting conditions in the North Atlantic.

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