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Extreme WeatherProjects are listed alphabetically by principal investigator _____________________ University of Guelph ($200,000 over 2 years, awarded 2008) Project Title: Role of soil moisture initialization on seasonal forecasts in Canada This project will study the role of soil moisture in seasonal forecasts in Canada and provide insight into managing water resources in an era of increasing climate change. Accurate knowledge of the quantity of moisture in the soil is important for enhanced seasonal forecasting. This project will contribute to national efforts for enhanced seasonal climate prediction through consideration of soil moisture processes and initial conditions in land surface models. The research will contribute to national initiatives in seasonal forecasting for climate and hydrology. _____________________ Queen’s University ($301,650 over 3 years, awarded 2003, completed March 2007) Project Title: Multidecadal- to millennial-scale shifts in extreme drought on the Canadian prairies over the past six millennia Drought is a naturally recurring feature of climate that has dramatic environmental, economic, and social impacts. Proxy records of past droughts indicate that the instrumental record is not representative of the extremes in drought that can occur on the central and western Canadian prairies. To gain a better understanding of drought occurrence, severity and duration over the last 6,000 years, the project tracked past fluctuations in drought using quantitative estimates of changes in lake-water salinity and water depth from estimates based on diatom assemblages preserved in lake sediments. In addition to projections of the risks of future droughts, these results provided a meaningful framework to adapt to variations in water availability on the prairies. _____________________ McGill University ($163,682 over 3 years, awarded 2002, completed October 2006) Project Title: Precipitation microphysics at sub-zero temperatures and the detection of icing Certain meteorological conditions cause icing on aircraft wings. This research examined methods for detecting these conditions. It also looked at the processes associated with precipitation formation at a temperature below 0oC and developed numerical techniques to model these conditions. McGill University ($274,438 over 3 years) Project Title: Development and testing of a new meteorological instrument for storm research and prediction: the mesoscale radiometer Our ability to predict severe summer thunderstorms more than an hour in advance is very poor. Thunderstorm formation and evolution depends critically on the temperature and humidity of the air in and around the storm. A new microwave radiometer will be developed to obtain temperature and humidity information at a resolution comparable to that of a thunderstorm and over a distance possibly exceeding 100 km. Using data from research aircraft and balloons, researchers will test this new instrument to determine its ability to improve forecasting of severe convection, thunderstorms and other events affecting aviation. _____________________ University of British Columbia Project Title: Kernel methods for forecasting extreme weather and seasonal climate ($273,000 over 3 years, awarded 2006) _____________________ Dalhousie University ($285,000 over 3 years,
awarded 2006) _____________________ McGill University ($126,500 over 2 years, awarded 2008) Project Title: Tropical-extratropical interactions and their role in subseasonal weather prediction in Canada The need for an improved early forecast and warning capability has become evident as the economic and social impacts from severe weather events worsen. This project will improve medium- and extended-range weather forecasting capability in Canada. The outcome of the research will be improved weather forecasts, especially for extreme weather events. _____________________ University of Alberta ($257,250 over 3 years, awarded 2002, completed September 2006) Project Title: Extreme ice accretion due to freezing rain The 1998 Ice Storm in eastern Canada caused freezing rain, severe winds and cold, which led to the collapse of 1,000 transmission towers and 30,000 hydro poles. Twenty-eight people died and total economic losses exceeded $5 billion. This research improved understanding of how extreme ice accretions are produced by freezing rain. The work provided electrical utilities with information to upgrade existing transmission lines and improve the design of new lines. The work involved the Icing Research Group at the University of Alberta and a team at the new Icing Precipitation Simulation Laboratory at the Université du Québec à Chicoutimi. _____________________ University of Western Ontario ($119,500 over 3 years, awarded 2001, completed August 2006) Project Title: Evaluating the performance of weather and environmental prediction systems Information from weather services around the world will be used to develop a model on the linkages and interdependencies in weather and environmental prediction systems. This work helped us understand and evaluate the skill and accuracy of these systems. Results allowed weather services to allocate scarce resources better and will help the research community to focus research projects more effectively. This project was a component of the Canadian Weather Research Project and was conducted in collaboration with the Meteorological Service of Canada. _____________________ University of Toronto ($456,000 over 3 years, awarded 2001, completed July 2005) Project Title: Severe winter weather in the Great Lakes region This project developed a coordinated program of observational and numerical modelling activities that resulted in improved conceptual and quantitative models of lake-effect snowstorms. During the late fall and winter, when cold and dry Arctic air flows across the Great Lakes, intense snow squalls often develop over and downstream of the various lakes. The research ultimately led to more accurate and timely forecasts of severe winter weather in the lee of the Great Lakes and benefitted snow removal operations, thus improving highway safety and airport operations. _____________________ University of Alberta ($406,500 over 3 years, awarded 2003, completed November 2007) Project Title: Modelling and forecasting severe convective storms with hail and tornadoes The occurrence of severe convective storms with large hail and destructive tornadoes is an increasingly serious problem, particularly for the Canadian prairies. Improved forecasting with longer lead times would save lives, reduce human suffering and offset some material loss associated with these severe thunderstorms. Using numerical model (MC2 over three years) predicted vertical wind profiles and temperature and humidity data, this project built an operational weather forecasting tool (HAIL-TORN-CAST). Findings of 3-D storm simulations allowed fine tuning of the HAIL-TORN-CAST model for future use in investigating the formation and growth of hailstones, and the spawning and spinning-up of tornadoes. This project had a significant component of training research scientists and weather forecasters and involved collaboration with Environment Canada. University of Alberta ($300,000 over 3 years) Project Title: Modelling and forecasting convective storms and rainfall On the Canadian Prairies, severe storms with large hail and heavy precipitation are an increasingly serious problem: the floods and damage that can result have long-lasting human and economic impacts. Understanding how these storms form and predicting how they will develop are important aims of the project, which will build upon the HAILCAST hail prediction model. Knowing where a storm will strike and how severe it will be (down to the size of hailstones) will have major benefits for operational weather forecasting in the region and help determine when to issue severe weather warnings. _____________________ University of Western Ontario ($314,800 over 3 years, awarded 2003, completed January 2007) Project Title: Assessment of water resources risk and vulnerability to changing climatic conditions Climate change can have potentially serious influences on the spatial and temporal distribution of water: affecting water availability as well as impacting the ability to cope with natural hazards. The research focused on analysis of existing guidelines and management practices in a river basin with respect to critical hydrological exposures affecting water resources. After transforming critical hydrological exposures (flood levels for example) into corresponding critical meteorological conditions, local weather scenarios were then statistically linked to possible large-scale climate conditions available from Global Circulation Models (GCM). In order to improve understanding of the processes leading to hydrological hazards, such as flood and drought events, the study developed water resources risk and vulnerability assessment tools, assessment of climate vulnerability of the Upper Thames River basin in Ontario, and guidelines for vulnerability reduction and hazard mitigation. _____________________ University of Calgary ($270, 000 over 3 years, awarded 2003, completed June 2007) Project Title: Regional real-time water vapour estimation using GPS The neutral atmosphere induces delays in Global Positioning System (GPS) signals; and networks of GPS reference stations can be used to extract real-time information about the spatial and temporal distribution of atmospheric water vapour using a tomographic approach. This project used GPS technology (ground-based and space-borne receivers) to derive continuous high-resolution real-time estimates of atmospheric water vapour in southern Alberta for meteorological applications. 3-D moisture observations from GPS were also used to investigate thunderstorm processes in southern Alberta, and the influence of atmospheric moisture on precipitation enhancement in the foothills of the Rockies. The team combined expertise in GPS, atmospheric processes, weather forecasting and climatology to facilitate development of novel atmospheric remote-sensing capabilities for extreme forecasts of weather and studies of atmospheric processes. _____________________ University of British Columbia ($151,000 over 2 years, awarded 2001, completed May 2004) Project Title: Rocketsonde buoy system—feasibility study and proof of concept This project studied the feasibility of building a buoy system for deployment in the deep ocean, to serve as a platform for launching small weather rockets. It also tested a prototype of the system. The resulting data were transmitted to Canadian and world meteorological centres to improve short- and medium-term weather forecasting. University of British Columbia ($116,400 over 2 years, awarded 2008) Project Title: Merging statistical postprocessing with ensemble averaging using gene-expression programming More accurate weather forecasts in complex terrain can help the Canadian economy and save lives. This project will bring new methods into older forecasting techniques and help reduce forecasting errors. _____________________ York University ($348,000 over 2 years, awarded 2001, completed January 2004) Project Title: Effects of lake breezes on weather (“ELBOW 2001”) This project studied the links between lake breezes and similar flow patterns with both severe summer weather (intense thunderstorms, lightning and tornadoes) and air quality issues. A pilot experiment was conducted in southwestern Ontario in 1997 and the “ELBOW 2001” field program built on the experience gained there and in subsequent modelling activities. The project provided the basis for considerable improvements in forecasting severe weather in a highly populated part of Canada. York University ($518,000 over 3 years, awarded 2003, completed January 2007) Project Title: Drifting and blowing snow: measurements and modelling Drifting (near the surface) and blowing snow are major factors in transportation delays and traffic collisions. Field observations under a range of wind and snow surface conditions helped resolve uncertainties in existing models and provided input to forecasters, especially those involved in road weather, aviation and Arctic conditions. Research sites in the Arctic, the prairies and southern Ontario were equipped with automatic weather stations, measuring wind profile and particle counters; various measurements including visibility were made. The project improved understanding of the conditions under which blowing snow occurs, and especially extended knowledge of size distribution and number density of blowing snow particles under a variety of wind, temperature and snow surface conditions. It also evaluated and improved methods of forecasting blowing snow occurrence, and of estimating snow pack conditions, transport and sublimation rates. _____________________ Université du Québec à Montréal ($75,000 over 3 years, awarded 2001, completed June 2004) Project Title: Polarimetric weather radar studies Measurements of rain and snow are of great significance across Canada, and the issue of polarimetric weather radars is a high priority research topic within the Meteorological Service of Canada. The interpretation of radar observations in snow, the melting layer and hail were improved through the optimization of polarimetric weather radar designs and analysis. The work provided the scientific foundation for operational use of polarimetric radar algorithms and improvement in the interpretation and forecasting of severe storm conditions for Canadians.
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