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Extreme WeatherProjects are listed alphabetically by Principal Investigator Cumming, Brian Queen’s University ($301,650 over three years, awarded 2003) Project Title: Multidecadal to millennial-scale shifts in extreme drought on the Canadian Prairies over the past six millennia Drought is a natural recurring feature of climate that has dramatic environmental, economic, and social impacts. Proxy records of past droughts indicate that the instrumental record is not representative of the extremes in drought that can occur on the central and western Canadian prairies. To gain a better understanding of drought occurrence, severity, and duration over the last 6000 years, the project tracks past fluctuations in drought using quantitative estimates of changes in lake-water salinity and water depth from estimates based on diatom assemblages preserved in lake sediments. In addition to projections of the risks of future droughts, these results will provide a meaningful framework to adapt to variations in water availabilities on the prairies. _____________________ Fabry, Frederic McGill University ($163,682 over three years, awarded 2002) Project Title: Precipitation Microphysics at Sub-zero Temperatures and the Detection of Icing Certain meteorological conditions cause icing on aircraft wings: this research examines methods for detecting these conditions. It also looks at the processes associated with precipitation formation at a temperature below 0o C and will develop numerical techniques to model these conditions. _____________________ Hsieh, William University of British Columbia Project Title: Kernel Methods for Forecasting Extreme Weather and Seasonal Climate ($273,000 over 3 years) _____________________ Lozowski, Ed University of Alberta ($257,250 over three years, awarded 2002) Project Title: Extreme Ice Accretion Due to Freezing Rain The 1998 Ice Storm in eastern Canada caused freezing rain, severe winds, and cold, which led to the collapse of 1,000 transmission towers, and 30,000 hydro poles. Twenty-eight people died and total economic losses exceeded $5 billion. This research will improve our understanding of how extreme ice accretions are produced by freezing rain. The work will provide electrical utilities with information to upgrade existing transmission lines and improve the design of new lines. The work involves the Icing Research Group at the University of Alberta and a team at the new Icing Precipitation Simulation Laboratory at the Université du Québec à Chicoutimi. _____________________ McBean, Gordon University of Western Ontario ($119,500 over three years, awarded 2001) Project Title: Evaluating the Performance of Weather and Environmental Prediction Systems Information from weather services around the world will be used to develop a model on the linkages and interdependencies in weather and environmental prediction systems. This work will help us understand and evaluate the skill and accuracy of these systems. Results will allow weather services to allocate scarce resources better and will be used by the research community to focus research projects more effectively. This project is a component of the Canadian Weather Research Project and is conducted in collaboration with the Meteorological Service of Canada. _____________________ Moore, Kent University of Toronto ($456,000 over three years, awarded 2001, completed July 2005) Project Title: Severe Winter Weather in the Great Lakes Region This project will develop a coordinated program of observational and numerical modeling activities that will result in improved conceptual and quantitative models of lake effect snowstorms. During the late fall and winter, when cold and dry arctic air flows across the Great Lakes, intense snow squalls often develop over and downstream of the various lakes. The research will ultimately lead more accurate and timely forecasts of severe winter weather in the lee of the Great Lakes, and will benefit to snow removal operations, thus improving highway safety and airport operations. _____________________ Reuter, Gerhard University of Alberta ($406,500 over three years, awarded 2003) Project Title: Modeling and forecasting severe convective storms with hail and tornadoes The occurrence of severe convective storms with large hail and destructive tornadoes is an increasingly serious problem, particularly for the Canadian Prairies. Improved forecasting with longer lead times would save lives, reduce human suffering, and offset some material loss associated with these severe thunderstorms. Using numerical model (MC2 over three years) predicted vertical wind profiles, and temperature and humidity data this project aims to build an operational weather forecasting tool (HAIL-TORN-CAST). Findings of 3-D storm simulations would allow fine-tuning of the HAIL-TORN-CAST model for future use in investigating the formation and growth of hailstones, and the spawning and spinning-up of tornadoes. This project has a significant component of training research scientists and weather forecasters, and collaboration efforts with Environment Canada _____________________ Simonovic, Slobodan University of Western Ontario ($314,800 over three years, awarded 2003) Project Title: Assessment of water resources risk and vulnerability to changing climatic conditions Climate change can have potentially serious influences on the spatial and temporal distribution of water: affecting water availability as well as impacting the ability to cope with natural hazards. The research focuses on analysis of existing guidelines and management practices in a river basin with respect to critical hydrological exposures affecting water resources. After transforming critical hydrological exposures (flood levels for example) into corresponding critical meteorological conditions, local weather scenarios are then statistically linked to possible large-scale climate conditions available from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). In order to improve understanding of the processes leading to hydrological hazards, such as flood and drought events, the study will develop: water resources risk and vulnerability assessment tools; assessment of climate vulnerability of the Upper Thames river basin in Ontario; and guidelines for vulnerability reduction and hazard mitigation. _____________________ Skone, Susan University of Calgary ($270, 000 over three years, awarded 2003) Project Title: Regional real-time water vapour estimation using GPS The neutral atmosphere induces delays in Global Positioning System (GPS) signals, and networks of GPS reference stations can be used to extract real-time information about the spatial and temporal distribution of atmospheric water vapour using a tomographic approach. This project uses GPS technology (ground-based and space-borne receivers) to derive continuous high-resolution real-time estimates of atmospheric water vapour in southern Alberta for meteorological applications. 3-D moisture observations from GPS are also used to investigate thunderstorm processes in southern Alberta, and the influence of atmospheric moisture on precipitation enhancement in the foothills of the Rockies. The team combines expertise in GPS, atmospheric processes, weather forecasting and climatology to facilitate development of novel atmospheric remote sensing capabilities for extreme forecasts of weather and studies of atmospheric processes. _____________________ Stull, Roland University of British Columbia ($151,00 over two years, awarded 2001, completed May 2004) Project Title: Rocketsonde Buoy System – Feasibility Study and Proof of Concept This project will study the feasibility of building a buoy system for deployment in the deep ocean, to serve as a platform for launching small weather rockets. It will also test a prototype of the system. If the results warrant, a further proposal will be made to build and deploy a network of buoys in the northeast Pacific, each capable of launching two rocketsondes a day. The resulting data will be transmitted to Canadian and world meteorological centres to improve short and medium-term weather forecasting. _____________________ Taylor, Peter A. York University ($348,000 over two years, awarded 2001, completed January 2004) Project Title: Effects of Lake Breezes on Weather (“ELBOW 2001”) This project involves studying the links between lake breezes and similar flow patterns with both severe summer weather (intense thunderstorms, lightning and tornadoes) and air quality issues. A pilot experiment was conducted in southwestern Ontario in 1997 and the “ELBOW 2001” field program will build on the experience gained there, and in subsequent modeling activities. The project will provide the basis for considerable improvements in forecasting severe weather in a highly populated part of Canada. _____________________ Taylor, Peter A. York University ($518,000 over three years, awarded 2003) Project Title: Drifting and blowing snow: measurements and modeling Drifting (near the surface) and blowing snow is a major factor in transportation delays and traffic accidents. New field observations under a range of wind and snow surface conditions will help resolve uncertainties in existing models and provide input to forecasters, especially those involved in road weather, aviation and Arctic conditions. Research sites in the Arctic, the Prairies and southern Ontario will be equipped with automatic weather stations, measuring wind profile and particle counters; various measurements including visibility, will be made. The project aims to improve understanding of the conditions under which blowing snow occurs, and especially to extend knowledge of size distribution and number density of blowing snow particles under a variety of wind, temperature and snow surface conditions. It will also evaluate and improve methods of forecasting blowing snow occurrence, and estimating snow pack conditions, transport and sublimation rates. _____________________ Torlaschi, Enrico C. Université du Québec à Montréal ($75,000 over three years, awarded 2001, completed June 2004) Project Title: Polarimetric Weather Radar Studies Measurements of rain and snow are of great significance across Canada, and the issue of polarimetric weather radars is a high priority research topic within the Meteorological Service of Canada. The interpretation of radar observations in snow, the melting layer and hail will be improved through the optimization of polarimetric weather radar designs and analysis. The result should be the scientific foundation for operational use of polarimetric radar algorithms, and improvement in the interpretation and forecasting of severe storm conditions for Canadians. Back to Project Description by Theme Area
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