Climate

Projects are listed alphabetically by Principal Investigator

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Beltrami, Hugo

St. Francis Xavier University

($226,248 over three years, awarded 2002)

Project Title: Determination of the Past Energy Balance at the Earth’s Surface: Canadian and Global Spatial Variations

Paleoclimate studies can identify past variations in surface and subsurface temperatures. By comparing temperature differences between the Earth’s surface and depths up to 500 metres, the research will improve our understanding and prediction of past and future temperature variations across the Earth’s surface. The work will provide valuable information on energy process mechanisms, which can be incorporated into land-surface computer models to improve climate predictability and variability. 

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Bertram, Allan

University of British Columbia 

($258,020 over three years, awarded 2002, completed March 2006)

Project Title: Heterogeneous Freezing Kinetics of Upper Troposphere Particles

The project will enhance scientific knowledge of how ice clouds form in the upper troposphere level of the Earth’s atmosphere (the region from the ground to an altitude of approximately 15 kilometres). Clouds are formed by the freezing of aerosol particles in this region: scientists look at the freezing process of the particles using temperature, relative humidity, and trace-gas concentrations that are present in the upper troposphere. The work will lead to improved models of upper tropospheric clouds and the Earth’s climate system, and more effective tools for predicting and studying the impact of climate change.

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Bourqui, Michel

McGill University

($172,000 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title: A new fast stratospheric ozone chemistry scheme and its application to the modeling of past and future trends

Over the past two decades, changes in stratospheric ozone over the Antarctic have increased ultra-violet radiation at the Earth's surface. This has led to the application of the Montreal Protocol on reductions of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions. Although more research is needed on an on-going basis to determine other anthropogenic sources affecting stratospheric ozone, the computational cost of state-of-the-art chemistry is still a major limitation in our predictive capability. Dr. Bourqui is creating a 'fast chemistry scheme' for modeling stratospheric ozone, enabling the research team to investigate the past and future evolution of ozone and to identify the contributions of different gases emitted as a result of human activity.

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Calvert, Stephen

University of British Columbia

($279,900 over three years, awarded 2001, completed March 2005)

Project Title: Temporal and Spatial variability of CO₂ efflux in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the last 200,000 years as monitored by sedimentary nitrogen isotope ratios

A key challenge in climate history research involves determining the causes of major fluctuations in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. This project will contribute to a better understanding of long-term controls on the carbon dioxide (CO₂) content of the atmosphere and the dynamics of greenhouse warming on the planet.  CO₂ concentration can fall by one-third in ice ages and rebound during the interglacial periods: the reason for this is not known.  The equatorial eastern Pacific is the most important oceanic source of CO₂ accounting for 75% of the total exchange of CO₂ from the ocean to the atmosphere, due to the upwelling of CO₂ enriched water from below.  This project will examine past changes in the intensity and spatial distribution of upwelling in the equatorial eastern Pacific (EEP) using a new tracer:  the ratio of naturally occurring isotopes of nitrogen in organic matter. 

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Chen, Jing M.

University of Toronto

($148,160 over two years, awarded 2001, completed December 2003)

Project Title: Carbon Balance Estimation at Landscape Level From Atmospheric CO₂ and Isotope Concentration Measurements

The results of this project will help validate climate models and improve the estimation of the carbon source and sink distribution. Assessing terrestrial carbon balance is important in understanding the Earth’s climate system and the team will investigate the feasibility of deriving carbon cycle information from accumulated data over the past decade at one of its research sites.  The research will determine if the landscape-level carbon balance signals from various carbon dioxide temporal and spatial patterns can be retrieved through use of models, tower concentration and isotopic measurements, and aircraft profiling data.  A further step will then be to study carbon balance over larger areas from a 100- to 200-metre tall tower above a forest.  Participants in this project include scientists from the University of Calgary, Meteorological Service of Canada and Canada Centre for Remote Sensing.

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Chen, Jing

University of Toronto

($389,065 over three years, awarded 2003)

Project Title: Ecosystem-coupled and nested atmospheric inversion for carbon fluxes over Canada’s landmass

Trace gas concentrations measured in the atmosphere can be used to inversely calculate their sources and sinks. The research involves atmospheric inversion studies of the carbon cycle over Canada’s landmass, which incorporate modeled constraints imposed on the ecosystem processes, using remote sensing input data. Initially, results using the GEM-BEPS model are compared and calibrated with TransCom3 data, after which extensive Canadian atmospheric inversion studies are undertaken using the nested modeling capability of GEM, both with and without ecosystem constraint criteria. The results will be used to improve the understanding global atmospheric inversion methods and further the understanding of the real-time simulation of carbon dynamics in Canada.

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Creed, Irena

University of Western Ontario

($592,611 over three years, awarded 2003)

Project Title: Roaming GHG-hotspots (CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O): a hydrologically based method for mapping GHG sources

Forest soils play a significant role in the global budget of the primary greenhouse gases (GHG’s): carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide. This research examines the distribution of soil GHG fluxes in complex forested landscapes in relation to a variety of environmental (temperature, soil, moisture, oxygen) and organic soil parameters. The results will be incorporated into an ecosystem simulation model for the prediction and mapping of GHG fluxes in temperate forest landscapes. Knowledge generated by the project will assist in the development of improved GHG accounting tools and emissions strategies for forested ecosystems.

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Cullen, Jay

University of Victoria

Project Title: Iron Supply in the Arctic Ocean and its Effect on Productivity, Carbon Cycling and Emission of Climatologically Active Gases

($293,500 over 3 years)

The expansive Arctic shelf seas and the dynamic sea-ice margins are seasonal zones of intense biogeochemical activity and are strong sources and sinks of climatologically active gases. Climate change is influencing the physical, chemical and biological dynamics of these areas and the links between Arctic coastal shelves and their adjacent basins. This project uses multiple geochemical tracers to investigate the sources and removal of the essential nutrient iron (Fe) in the Arctic Ocean. It contrasts the relative importance of Pacific water inflow, the resuspension of shelf sediments, diagenetic input, ice transport, fluvial input and eolian (wind) deposition as iron sources in the Arctic. The work will help climate modelers to predict the effects of climate change on iron cycling in the Arctic Ocean and how marine productivity and food web structure respond to changes in sea ice extent, river input and shelf sediment redox chemistry induced by global warming.

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Folkins, Ian

Dalhousie University

($62,500 over three years, awarded 2003)

Project Title: The mean water vapor budget of the tropical troposphere

Much of the warming seen in climate models is associated with carbon dioxide, which can be attributed to increases in water vapour. A water vapour feedback mechanism therefore exists, which can significantly determine the degree of future climate change i.e. that which might occur over the next one hundred years. The study employs satellite, aircraft and radiosonde measurements collected in the tropics, to more accurately characterize the various sources of water vapour released to the tropical atmosphere. The results will assist general circulation modelers in determining whether the hydrological cycle is being modeled in a realistic manner, and help clarify the outstanding of uncertainties associated with both the size and nature of the water vapour feedback mechanism.

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Fredeen, Arthur

University of Northern British Columbia  

($405,497 over three years, awarded 2002)

Project Title: A Regional Carbon-balance and GIS-model for a Sub-boreal Research Forest in British Columbia

The carbon balance of a sub-Boreal research forest will be examined and modeled at a site near Prince George in central British Columbia. The research examines links between carbon stocks and fluxes, and climatic and environmental factors, including microclimate, temperature, and water. Additional work will include evaluating the impact of forest management practices on carbon pools in B.C. forests. The initiative will contribute to the validation of regional and national computer models of carbon balance, and help develop benchmarks for long-term carbon inventory studies.

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English, Michael

Wilfrid Laurier University

($256,000 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title : Deriving open tundra snow cover information for climatological analysis from spaceborne passive microwave data

The tundra in the Coppermine River basin (NWT) has a mixed surface of rivers, lakes and snow cover. The water volume of this surface varies considerably: a specialized method of measuring this volume will lead to a more accurate understanding of the role of water in the tundra. By using a small plane to capture spaceborne passive microwave information, Dr. English's research team can compare naturally-occurring radiation data with satellite observations. Comparisons between ground readings, information gathered from the airplane, and data from the satellite build a mathematical relationship that corrects any errors inherent in the satellite image due to snow distribution or lake ice.

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Evans, Wayne

Trent University

($204,000 over three years, awarded 2002)

Project Title: Radiative Forcing of Greenhouse Gases in the Troposphere

Radioactive forcing of greenhouse gases is a major driver in climate change. The project uses remote-sensing techniques to measure climate forcing attributed to different greenhouse gases (including water vapour) in a variety of locations as well as under cloud cover.  The climate-forcing measurements will provide a dataset with which to compare Global Climate Model (GCM) radiation models (the Canadian GCM-3 and the NCAR CCM3).  They will also be compared to predictions from GCM codes to determine discrepancies between the model and the measurements. 

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Francois, Roger

University of British Columbia

($286,950 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title : Quantifying changes in North Atlantic deep water formation associated with abrupt climate change

Studies of ice cores and ocean sediments have revealed large and abrupt changes in Earth's climate in the past. The knowledge that global climate can change dramatically and rapidly (within decades) has increased the need to improve our ability to predict the climatic consequences of the continued rise of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Dr. Francois' project examines deep water formation in the North Atlantic over the last climatic cycle (130,000 years ago to present) using a newly developed tracer of ocean circulation that is preserved in Atlantic sediments. By understanding how and when deep water formation has occurred in relation to past abrupt climate change, Dr. Francois hopes to clarify the role human activity plays in our changing climate.

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Gajewski, Konrad

University of Ottawa

($265,700 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title : Arctic climate variability at several timescales

Climate change could have serious impacts on the arctic environment and there is evidence that global warming is already affecting the Arctic; however, the natural climate variability of northern Canada is not well known. Determining natural climate variability and its impacts on northern Canada is difficult without an accurate picture of variations in past climates. This project is analyzing lake sediments at several sites across the Arctic Archipelago, for pollens and other organisms that document how the climate has varied. The pollen deposited in lake sediments is related to regional vegetation; changes in the pollen patterns in sediment cores can indicate how rapidly the vegetation responded to past climate variations. By examining samples from across the Arctic, including pollen trapped in ice caps, it is possible to create a more complete picture of past climate variations.

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Gillis, Kathryn

University of Victoria

($99,095 over three years, awarded 2003)

Project Title: Assessing the role of seafloor weathering in the global carbon cycle

The oceanic crust is known to chemically react with the oceans and bring significant carbon fluxes into subduction zones. However, the role of seafloor weathering in the global carbon cycle is very poorly understood, even though it plays a significant role in generating volcanic CO₂ fluxes. Utilizing drill cores of the upper oceanic crust recovered from sites in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the study utilizes a variety of isotope and trace element techniques, to determine the environmental conditions that favour carbonate precipitation. The results will be used to quantify the CO₂ inventory of the oceanic crust as well as identify the variables controlling the amount and spatial distribution of stored carbon.

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Girard, Éric

Université du Québec à Montréal

($298,300 over three years, awarded 2002, completed June 2005)

Project Title: Simulating Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions in the Arctic

Clouds influence the amount of solar radiation that reaches the earth’s surface and the amount of infrared radiation that escapes to space; hence surface temperature is closely linked to clouds. The research investigates the effects of sulphuric acid aerosols, originating from predominantly anthropogenic sources, on cloud formation in the Arctic, and the impact of this on the climate of the Arctic. The results will also be used to improve regional climate-change models.

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Hocking, Wayne

University of Western Ontario

($462,750 over three years, awarded 2003)

Project Title: Tropopause processes and dynamics relating to ozone transport, tropospheric ozone and ozone climatology

Though often considered a “lid” to the troposphere, the tropopause is far from being an isolating layer. On occasion it can split, or form tropospheric folds and intrusions, often resulting in mixing between the tropopause and the stratopause. The project attempts to determine the percentage of tropospheric ozone originating from the stratosphere by such processes. The research uses measurements and observations from simultaneous and co-located windprofiler radars, ozonesondes and radiosondes, including those of other constituents such as various fluorocarbons, water vapour, carbon monoxide and methane, under certain circumstances. Several case study comparisons will be made with MSC high-resolution (21km over three years) region forecast model and pollution models (CHRONOS and AURAMS).

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Kaminski, Jacek

York University

Project Title: Chemical Dynamical Studies of the Troposphere and Stratosphere with a High Resolution Model, GEM-Strato

($300,000 over 3 years)

The project is developing a high spatial resolution model of the stratosphere and troposphere which will allow Canadian researchers to participate in chemical and dynamic studies of these important regions of the atmosphere and to participate in international projects. A vertically extended version of Environment Canada (MSC)'s Global Environmental Multiscale model: GEM-Strato is being used to investigate spatial resolution and its impact on the development of polar stratospheric clouds that form at low temperatures in the stratosphere, on the ozone layer. The project will improve modelling of transport and chemistry in the stratosphere. The sophisticated polar stratospheric cloud scheme, heterogeneous chemistry and forecast ability of GEM-Strato will facilitate the prediction of the occurrence of ozone depleted air over Canada.

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Kellman, Lisa

St. Francis Xavier University

($198,300 over three years, awarded 2002)

Project Title: Evaluating the Role of Soil Total Heat in Controlling Carbon Dioxide Production in Canada

This project is examining the role of stored energy in controlling surface emissions of carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) in the top metre of the soil. The research is taking place at a range of soil and land-use sites across Nova Scotia. A central goal of the research is to determine how the annual soil heat storage, hence the production and emission of carbon dioxide, varies with shifts in air temperature. The project will significantly contribute to the understanding and modeling of potential global warming scenarios.

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Kushner, Paul

University of Toronto

($276,000 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title : Improved North-Atlantic sector climate forecasts using the Type A/Type N classification

Improving our ability to extend weather predictions and climate forecasts as far ahead as possible is of great economic importance to Canada. Dr. Kushner is developing new methods to predict climate conditions on a seasonal timescale: three to four months. By combining analysis of weather observations and computer models of the atmosphere, two distinct patterns of wintertime surface temperature and surface winds emerge: the 'Type A' pattern has a hemispheric scale and extends from the troposphere into the stratosphere; the 'Type N' pattern, which is focused on the North-Atlantic Sector, is localized to the troposphere. American researchers have shown that North American winters are typically dominated by one or the other of these patterns; Dr. Kushner is improving our characterization of the two patterns by looking at past observations as well as simple and comprehensive climate models.

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Lafleur, Peter

Trent University

($475,850 over three years, awarded 2003)

Project Title: Investigation of the Canadian tundra carbon dioxide exchange

The research examines carbon flux and environmental changes in the Canadian Arctic, using existing research facilities at the Terrestrial Environmental Research Station (TERS) at Daring Lake, N.W.T. Measurements focus on the exchange of carbon on three different scales: ecosystem; plot (tundra); and plant species. The results will be used to determine: the current net CO₂ sink/source strength of Canadian arctic tundra vegetation communities; the seasonal and annual variability in CO₂ exchange in arctic tundra; and characterize the biotic and abiotic controls effecting carbon exchange in arctic tundra ecosystems.

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Lamoureux, Scott

Queen’s University

($55,400 over two years, awarded 2002, completed March 2006)

Project Title: Reconstructing Long Term Hydrological Variability and Flow Extremes on the Columbia River, British Columbia, using Varved Lacustrine Sediments

The project involves examining the annual sediment layers of Upper Arrow Lake, in order to evaluate the yearly runoff from the Columbia River over the past one thousand years. The information will be used to determine long-term variations in the river flow regime and identify extremes, such as floods and droughts. The data will help validate long-term climate changes and determine if and how flow regimes are linked to changes in ocean circulation patterns.

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Lohmann, Ulrike

Dalhousie University 

($412,000 over three years, awarded 2001, completed September 2005)

Project Title: Laboratory testing of an anthropogenic role in ice nucleation

Ice is an important factor in climate and air quality issues: its presence affects the lifespan of clouds and trace gases. An ice nuclei laboratory will be set up to study the ice activity of black carbon and mineral dust found in atmospheric aerosols.  The role of temperature on the ice nucleating ability of different types of aerosols will be examined, as will the effect of trace gases on the ability of aerosols to act as ice nuclei. This project will permit a better characterization of the microphysical properties of clouds in climate and air quality models, especially the glaciation ability of supercooled clouds. It will also increase understanding of ice nucleation mechanisms. 

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Loewen, Mark

University of Alberta

($336,102 over three years, awarded 2002) 

Project Title: Air-Sea Gas Transfer Due to Microscale Breaking Waves

This research will enhance global climate modeling through a better understanding of the role that micro-scale breaking waves play in the exchange of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, between the atmosphere and the world’s oceans.

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Luckman, Brian

University of Western Ontario

($418,600 over three years, awarded 2001)

Project Title: Developing a Proxy Climate Database for the Last 300 Years in the Canadian Cordillera

This project represents a Canadian contribution to a major international project “The Inter American Institute for Global Change Research Collaborative Network”. The network compares information on climate variability from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego.  Climate variation in western Canada over the last 300-500 years will be documented, using proxy climate records derived from tree-rings. Long-lived tree species provide annual data on precipitation and temperatures: this information will be incorporated into an integrated, accessible database, which will be used to develop local, regional and continental-scale reconstructions of past climate variation.  Tree-ring data also permits investigation of the relationship between climate and biomass production/carbon sequestration: the capacity of natural forest systems to sequester additional amounts of carbon in response to climate change will be assessed.   Documenting and understanding natural climate variability is critical to modeling future climates, as future anthropogenically-driven climate changes will be superimposed on this continuing natural variability.

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McConnell, John

York University

($139,000 over two years, awarded 2002, completed December 2005)

Project Title: Measuring Ozone Column from Astronomical Archives

Given concerns about changes in the terrestrial ozone column in the stratosphere, we need to know more about what the unperturbed levels were before satellite coverage started in the 1970s. The longest record may be the Arosa record, which goes back to 1926. The present research is examining and analyzing measurements of the ozone column back to the beginning of the 20th century or even earlier, using ozone signatures from historical stellar observational data for several astronomical observatories around the globe. This will provide much needed data on ozone changes over a much longer time frame than is currently available, and increase our knowledge of variations in the Earth’s ozone layer. 

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Monahan, Adam

University of Victoria

($150,000 over three years, awarded 2002, completed January 2006)

Project Title: Stochastic Subgrid-scale Parameterizations in Climate

The Earth’s climate is a system of tremendous complexity. Mathematical models of the system help us understand it, but some processes cannot be explicitly described. The problem of representing non-explicitly resolved processes on explicitly modeled climate phenomena is known as “subgrid-scale parameterization.” This project considers the importance of subgrid-scale variability and develops a strategy for building this variability into operational models, which are used to understand the climate system and possible human impacts upon it.

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Monahan, Adam

University of Victoria

($130,000 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title: Interactions across space and time scales in the climate system

Interactions between space and time in the climate system must be better understood in order to improve our ability to simulate the system's present variability, and predict how it might change in response to human activities. This project considers the interactions between different space and time scales in three aspects: the nature of variability in the wind blowing over the ocean, which determines how the ocean and atmosphere interact; the variability of the tropical atmosphere, which is important to the phenomenon of El Niño (which significantly affects Canada); and the dynamics of atmospheric low-frequency variability, the understanding of which holds promise for improved extended-range weather forecasts.

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Moore, Robert M. and Punshon, Steve

Dalhousie University

($65,532 over three years, awarded 2001, completed June 2004)

Project Title: Marine Nitrous Oxide Production and Loss Kinetics

This project will examine nitrous oxide concentrations that are showing a long term atmospheric increase. One of its sources is the ocean, where it is produced by microbial processes. A major problem in the detailed study of nitrous oxide in the ocean is that it is not easy to separate the production and loss processes, so that measurement can normally provide only the net result of both types of process.  This project will help in that separation and assist in building knowledge about the oceans’ impacts on concentrations of the chemical.  A key result will be to determine the upper limits and how ocean processes affect the concentrations.  The ultimate result is to separate and quantify the kinetics of nitrogen oxide consumption and production in the upper ocean.

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Moore, Timothy

McGill University

($300,000 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title: Atmospheric exchange of methane and nitrous oxide in Canadian forest soils

Upland forest soils are generally a sink for atmospheric methane and a source of nitrous oxide, two important greenhouse gases, yet information on the fluxes of these two gases in the forest environment is scarce. Dr. Moore's project measures the fluxes of the two gases in the boreal regions of five provinces, particularly after disturbances such as forest harvesting or removal of trees from agricultural land. Tested against both new and established models, the field measurements provide greater understanding of the predictability and the process of the gas fluxes in the boreal forest environment.

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Myers, Paul G.

Memorial University of Newfoundland/University of Alberta

($192,500 over three years, awarded 2001, completed January 2005)

Project Title: Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sub-Polar North Atlantic

An existing regional model of the Labrador Sea will be improved as a key result in this study of the role of fresh water in the ocean/climate system of the Labrador Sea and other sub-polar areas of the North Atlantic Ocean.  Other key results will include quantifying the effects of freshwater transport through the Canadian Archipelago to the Labrador Sea region and the deepwater convection processes, allowing for parameterizations for coarser resolution climate models.  Overall, the work will assist in developing a greater understanding of climate variability (with an emphasis on the variability over decades) in the Atlantic region. 

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Mysak, Lawrence

McGill University

($289,785 over three years, awarded 2002, completed January 2006) 

Project Title: Investigation of Interglacial and Glacial Geosphere-Biosphere Feedbacks, Climate System Modeling

The research uses a coupled biosphere-geosphere Earth System model to investigate a number of long time-scale climate problems associated with glacial and inter-glacial periods. It will increase understanding of the relationship of biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedback mechanisms.

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Norman, Ann-Lise

University of Calgary 

($63,640 over three years, awarded 2002, completed March 2006)

Project Title: Temporal and Spatial Trends in DMS-sulphate in Arctic Aerosols

Naturally occurring variations between two atmospheric aerosols—dimethyl sulphide (DMS) and methane sulphonic acid (MSA)—are being studied at two Arctic locations. Both aerosols influence atmospheric behaviour. An increase in the amount of aerosols released due to warmer ocean temperatures, enhanced biological activity, and more open water in the Arctic is suggested to be a natural cooling mechanism, which may partly counteract the effects of increasing global temperatures. This study will lead to a better understanding of the complex feedback mechanisms associated with climate variations in Arctic regions.

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Patterson, William

University of Saskatchewan

Project Title: High-resolution Holocene climate derived from lacustrine sediment, cellulose, and speleothems

($299,360 over 3 years)

Was the recent drought that hit the Canadian Prairies a once-only event, or has it happened repeatedly in the past? Unable to consult meteorological records beyond the last hundred years or so, scientists are finding ways to examine climate records using lake sediment, tree rings, and speleothem archives. This project will use state-of-the-art technology and the isotopes of hydrogen, oxygen, carbon and nitrogen to reconstruct the precipitation and temperature history of western Canada, thereby gaining a perspective on whether recent extremes are a cyclic component of long-term variation, or human-forced events that are rare or unique to our climate system.

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Peng, Changhui

Lakehead University 

($210,000 over three years, awarded 2001, completed August 2005)

Project Title: Effects of Climate Change on Ontario’s Boreal Forest Ecosystems:  Assessment of Impacts and Consequences to Carbon Budgets

The Global Climate Model predicts that a doubling of carbon dioxide will increase mean air temperature in Ontario by 3-5° during the growing season, and alter regional precipitation regimes. There is an urgent need to develop a better scientific understanding of the impacts of future climate change on Ontario’s boreal forest ecosystems, including carbon budget and changes in carbon flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. This project will assess climate change impacts on Ontario’s forests and lead to a better understanding of the impact of climate change on key processes and mechanisms of carbon dioxide sinks and sources.  A new process-based dynamic model of forest growth and carbon will be developed, calibrated and tested.  Sustainable forest management strategies that account for these impacts and that maximize carbon sequestration will be identified.

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Quinton, William

Simon Fraser University

($360,000 over three years, awarded 2001, completed April 2005)

Project Title: Snow and soil moisture representation and scaling in climate model land-surface schemes for cold regions

Regional climate models (RCMs) are used to simulate the cycling of water and energy within the atmosphere. An important component of RCMs are land-surface schemes (energy and mass flux interaction at the atmosphere-ground interface).  This research will result in improved RCM simulations by developing an improved land-surface scheme.  The WATCLASS land-surface scheme will be improved by including water balance (accounting for water inflows to the ground, storage on or below it, and outflows from it).   This is important, as most climate models do not do a good job of predicting wet processes, which results in water resources being largely ignored in global warming and climate change scenarios.

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Ridgwell, Andrew

University of British Columbia

($182,400 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title: Anthropogenic acidification of the ocean: Implications for future carbon cycling and climate change

The ocean helps limit the impact of human activities on the climate by absorbing about a third of all the carbon dioxide gas (CO₂) released to the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels. Since CO₂ forms a weak acid as it dissolves in surface waters, oceans have been experiencing increased acidification, which adversely affects many marine organisms, particularly those which make carbonate shells and skeletons. Dr. Ridgwell investigates the implications of future atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on the acidification of the ocean. By developing an innovative computer model of marine carbon cycling and climate, Dr. Ridgwell will be able to predict changes in surface ocean acidity and assess future changes in ocean carbonate production.

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Roulet, Nigel

McGill University

Project Title: Changes in Scale Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions Due to land cover Changes Associated with the Creation of Reservoirs for the Production of Hydroelectricity

($399,150 over 3 years)

Currently, hydro-electric power production is the largest, most socially acceptable non-fossil based alternative form of mass energy production. However, when reservoirs are created, there is an emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a critical question remains unanswered: What is the net change in the regional-scale exchange of GHGs from the landscape before and after reservoir creation? And, if large changes are found, how long are they maintained? This project will answer these questions using a double-pronged approach: intense study of Hydro Quebec's recent Eastmain development, and measurements and modelling of landscape scale exchanges with and without reservoirs ecosystem simulation models, remote-sensing data and paleo-ecological characterizations of the ecosystems. The goal of this research is to provide a basis for comparison of hydro-electric energy production that requires the creation of large reservoirs against other modes of energy production.

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Royer, Alain

Université de Sherbrooke

($232,000 over three years, awarded 2003)

Project Title: Parameterization of Northern high latitude environment from space

Scenarios of future evolution predict that climate change will be particularly significant in the high latitudes. The study aims to establish the extent to which permafrost, lake and wetland dynamics enhance energy and moisture exchanges with the atmosphere, and the amplitude of future climate change. Using satellite data of geophysical parameters, the project examines recent variability and change in Canadian sub-arctic and boreal climate. Anticipated benefits are two-fold:   1) Development of new methods of analysis and interpretation of remotely sense data at the scale of surface characteristics and processes; and 2) Improved understanding of interaction processes between surface characteristics and climate variability linked to the regional scale energy budget and hydrometeorological behaviour of the northern environment.

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Sauchyn, David

University of Regina

($102,000 over three years, awarded 2001, completed December 2005)

Project Title: Climate variability in the Canadian interior: Coupling proxy data and GCM simulations

This research focuses on the climate variability of the past 1000 years in the western Canadian interior, and will improve the modeling of future climate variability and the interpretation of past climates.  Climate variability simulated by global climate models will be compared to climate variability from paleoclimate records.  New knowledge will be provided to assess impacts of climate variability on natural and social systems.  Canada will benefit through the development of policy and programs for minimizing the cost of climate extremes and variability. 

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Schiff, Sherry

University of Waterloo

($267,446 over three years, awarded 2001, completed July 2005)

Project Title: Reservoirs and Flooded Landscapes:  An important source of greenhouse gases in Canada

Flooding caused by construction of reservoirs for hydroelectric power generation, releases carbon stored in forest and wetland soils to the atmosphere as greenhouse gases (GHG).  This study is investigating whether new surfaces on previously flooded peat margins are acting as carbon sources or sinks, what controls the extent of methane (CH₄) oxidation in the reservoirs, and the longevity of the carbon supply in both uplands and wetlands.  The work will focus on evaluating the magnitude of the carbon sources and sinks and processes that affect GHG fluxes associated with reservoir construction in northern Canada.  A process-based dynamic computer model will be developed to simulate the carbon cycle in flooded reservoirs of various vegetation communities in the boreal forest.  Proposed mitigation strategies prior to flooding can then be evaluated.  This work can contribute to the evaluation of wetland response to flooding conditions created by a potential future global warming in the permafrost areas of Canada and Siberia.

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Schwarcz, Henry

McMaster University

($254,200 over three years, awarded 2003)

Project Title: Holocene paleotemperature records from stable isotopic analyses of speleothems and their fluid inclusions

Deep inside a cave where the temperature changes very gradually, deposits grow out of drip water fed by rain and snow falling above the cave.  Speleotherms are calcite deposits formed in limestone caves and include stalagmites, stalactites and flowstones.  This project will focus on the last 10,000 years, the period since the end of the last ice age, when climate was generally mild but experienced periodic fluctuations.  Various methods are used to determine Holocene temperature history at caves in western Canada and the northeastern U.S.

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Sharp, Martin

University of Alberta

($583,695 over 2 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title: Variability of Arctic climate and sea ice over the past millennium: implications for ice cap mass balance

World climate has changed over the past thousand years, but nowhere as profoundly as in the Arctic. Sealed in ice thousands of years old, the world climate record has been frozen in time. By studying deep ice cores from an icefield on Ellesmere Island, the researchers are examining evidence of past climate change events ranging from historically-verified volcanic eruptions to thermonuclear testing. Their imprint in the ice will help to identify the timeframe of climate changes. The project will also examine how sea ice responds to change over time, and the relationship of sea ice to the overall health of glaciers and ice caps in the region.

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Shepherd, Gordon

York University

($330,000 over three years, awarded 2002)

Project Title: Enhancing Climate Knowledge through Global Mesospheric Observations and Comparison with Models

The Earth’s atmosphere at an altitude of between 70 km and 120 km is very important. It’s in this zone that energy from the Earth’s surface mixes with solar radiation coming from space. Both of these influences are strong and can be readily studied. Even small changes in the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface can produce observable changes in lower atmospheric conditions. The project investigates these changes in the lower atmosphere, using a large database obtained from Canada’s WIND Imaging Interferometer (WINDII), which is mounted on NASA’s Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS). In addition to analyzing the WINDII database, extensive computer modeling studies will also be undertaken to evaluate the influence of the solar component on changes in the 70-120 km zone and upon climate variations.

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Simpson, Andre

University of Toronto

($275,000 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title: Climatic controls on soil organic carbon composition and potential responses to global warming

Soils are both a sink and a source for carbon dioxide. Soil organic carbon (SOC) also represents the largest source of terrestrial carbon and has been estimated to account for one-half to two-thirds of the total terrestrial carbon pool. Accurate accounting of SOC is challenging, but necessary for understanding global carbon fluxes and ecological responses to global warming. Dr. Simpson is applying molecular-level tools to better understand the formation and stabilization of soil organic matter, and to identify how these structures are tied to current and future climatic conditions.

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Simpson, Myrna

University of Toronto

($300,320 over three years, awarded 2002, completed July 2005)

Project Title: Assessing the Role of Labile and Refractory Soil Organic Carbon in the Global Carbon Cycle

Soils are both a sink and a source for carbon dioxide. Soil organic carbon (SOC) also represents the largest source of terrestrial carbon and has been estimated to account for one-half to two-thirds of the total terrestrial carbon pool. Accurate accounting of SOC is a challenging but necessary task in understanding global carbon fluxes and ecological responses to global warming. This research is focused on studying the nature and structure of SOC from a variety of ecosystems (forests, grasslands, and agricultural land) and will ultimately lead to the development of more accurate global cycling models.

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Sloan, James

University of Waterloo

($278,057 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title: Study of heterogeneous reactions of radicals with organic material on the surfaces of atmospheric aerosols

This project will improve understanding of chemical interactions between gas and condensed phases of liquid and solid aerosols in the atmosphere. The work will improve our knowledge of the processes involved in air pollution. It will provide valuable data on organic aerosols, semi-volatile organic compounds and other compounds for radiative transfer and climate models. Wherever possible, the experimental data will be integrated into regional chemical transport models in the university's Atmospheric Sciences Centre.

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Strachan, Ian

McGill University

($222,570 over three years, awarded 2001, completed January 2006)

Project Title: Reducing the uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural farms by making use of nocturnal boundary layer properties

Canadian agricultural systems contribute to emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane. Current estimates of farm-scale emissions contain a high degree of uncertainty, due to a lack of direct measurements and difficulties in extrapolation. In this project, the nocturnal boundary layer, the layer of air above the surface that develops during calm nights, will be monitored for greenhouse gas emissions from farm sources in Eastern Ontario and Western Quebec. Supporting data from soil, land-cover and meteorological variables will enable modeling of greenhouse gas emissions from homogeneous fields. The project will improve estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and will provide policy makers with better information to promote greenhouse gas reduction.

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Strong, Kimberly

University of Toronto

($225,000 over three years, awarded 2001, completed July 2005)

Project Title: Stratospheric Indicators of Climate Change

Data to improve current climate models will be one result of research into stratospheric ozone and polar ozone depletion from the release of CFCs.  These are closely linked to the global climate system, even though they have often been regarded as separate issues.  This research will help increase understanding about the relationship between ozone and climate change, as well as improve knowledge of Arctic ozone loss and its links with the climate system.  A UV-visible grating spectrometer was successfully deployed in the spring of 2001 at Eureka, Nunavut, providing measurements of ozone and other key trace gases at the time of year when conditions leading to polar ozone depletion develop.  This experience will be repeated at the same time in the next two years.  Analysis of the observations and measurements from other instruments and meteorological data will help unravel the coupled chemical, dynamical, microphysical and radiative processes of the climate system that determine the stratospheric ozone budget in the Arctic. 

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Sutherland, Bruce

University of Alberta

($273,890 over three years, awarded 2003)

Project Title: Generation, propagation and breaking of internal waves in the abyssal ocean

The correlation of enhanced mixing with the presence of rough ocean topography, such as occurs in the mid-Atlantic ridge, is the result of breaking internal waves generated by tidal-forced turbulence. The dynamics of the mechanism involve complex interactions between waves and turbulence and irregular boundaries on wide range time- and length-scales. The study uses numerical simulations of the ocean, laboratory experiments, and computer-aided analysis tools to correctly predict energy transport over rough topography of internal waves. It also measures the path taken by internal waves in fluid with complex density variations, representative of the deep ocean. The results will facilitate simulation of more realistic oceanographic circumstances, and development of numerical schemes that capture essential dynamics of internal small-scale internal waves.

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Swayne, David

University of Guelph 

($599,850 over three years, awarded 2001, completed March 2005)

Project Title: Cross-Evaluation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) and Lake Thermal Models using Observations and Objective Analysis

Large lakes are important agents in influencing the circulation of the atmosphere.  Canada has a significant proportion of the world’s large lakes.  Little is known of the heat and mass transfers and thermal regimes of these large deep lakes.  The project will advance knowledge of the effects of Canada’s lakes on regional climate and vice versa.  Lake models will be linked with atmospheric models for better prediction of future effects on the health of our lakes, both in water quantity and quality.  The accuracy of these models will be evaluated. 

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Tang, Youmin

University of Northern British Columbia

($227,400 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title: A systematic and extensive investigation of ENSO predictability

The El Niño Southern Oscillation pattern (or ENSO) is the world's strongest interannual climate variation and has great impact worldwide. Our ability to predict ENSOs is linked to our ability to predict other climate variables, over seasons to years. Dr. Tang is systematically applying new mathematical tools to explore two central issues of ENSO predictability - appropriate and robust measures of the reliability of ENSO predictions, and the main precursors that control variations in this reliability.

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Waddington, James

McMaster University 

($371,000 over three years, awarded 2001, completed July 2005)

Project Title: Vegetation and Hydroclimatological Controls on Greenhouse Gas Exchange in a Changing Climate:  Peatlands as Sensitive Ecosystems

Peatlands accumulate more carbon than any other terrestrial ecosystem, and as peatlands cover more than 17% of Canada’s land surface, they are an internationally important natural resource.  The response of peatlands to predicted drying due to global warming will have global ramifications. This project will simulate the effects of the widespread drying of peatland. The changes in peatland hydrology, feedback between the atmosphere and the peatland, and the role of vegetation in modifying these feedbacks are among the factors being examined. 

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Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

University of Guelph

($240,000 over three years, awarded 2001, completed June 2004)

Project Title: Understanding Interannual Variability of Nitrous Oxide Fluxes From Soils: A Field and Modeling Study

An existing micrometeorological field experiment to evaluate the effect of carbon-sequestering management practices on nitrous oxide emissions is being expanded at the University of Guelph.  This project involves collecting crucial supporting data sets of meteorological, soil and surface variables needed for air-surface modeling.  Nitrous oxide, an important greenhouse gas, originates mostly from soils and is enhanced by nitrogen fertilizer use in agriculture.  The results obtained in the research will contribute to better testing of nitrogen oxide models used in determining how air-surface exchange is affected by climate change, and to the identification of agricultural soils as sinks or sources of greenhouse gases.

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Warland, Jon

University of Guelph

($110,700 over three years, awarded 2001, completed June 2004)

Project Title: Development and Application of In-Canopy Flux Measurement Techniques

This project will help to develop new methods of measuring the exchange of trace gases such as carbon dioxide, ozone and methane in an effort to better understand sources and dispersion. The gases play important roles in many environmental challenges, especially the greenhouse effect and air pollution.  With two experimental components, one in a forest and the other at a research farm, knowledge will be gained to help other researchers make new measurements of other trace gases such as ozone.  This is important to various other parts of atmospheric research, and will provide new insights into various relationships involving carbon dioxide exchange and water use.

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Weaver, Andrew

University of Victoria

($429,000 over three years, awarded 2001)

Project Title: Vegetation/Carbon Cycle Feedbacks on Quaternary Climate

This research will contribute to national efforts to improve the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis’ coupled model. The model is used to make computer projections of future climate change.  Understanding the intricate feedbacks between land and ocean surface properties and climate will help improve current models.  Using models to simulate past climatic events is an important verifier, which can boost our confidence in the value of these models to predict future events. The proposal will examine the climates of 116,000, 21,000, and 6,000 years ago, and will try to answer questions such as “How did vegetation changes contribute to glacial inception?”

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Weaver, Andrew

University of Victoria

($291,000 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title : Cryosphere-ocean-climate interactions: past and future

Dr. Weaver's research addresses fundamental questions in climate and paleoclimate. It assesses both the direct climatic consequences associated with changing land cover, as well as the ability of the terrestrial and oceanic biosphere to sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide. His work involves using the University of Victoria's Earth System Climate Model, which includes dynamic vegetation and terrestrial/oceanic carbon cycle models.

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Whiticar, Michael

University of Victoria

($115,400 over three years, awarded 2003)

Project Title: Modeling and atmospheric methane measurements over Late Glacial through Holocene (MAMMOTH)

This research seeks to understand the radically different global climate changes seen during the Late Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the pre-industrial Holocene (PIH over three years), which are evidenced by pronounced changes in atmospheric CH₄ concentrations and stable carbon isotope ratios (¹³CH₄/¹²CH₄) seen over this period. The work includes studies using a global process model (the Canadian Peatlands Carbon Simulator - PCARS over three years) and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Global Dynamic Model (LPJ-DGVM) to quantify the isotopic signatures and magnitude of the CH₄ emissions. In addition, collection and analysis of Greenland and Canadian LGM to PIH ice samples for isotope ratios, combined with existing ice data will provide the basis for atmospheric CH₄ mass balance studies. Detailed modeling of the LGM-PIH transition will significantly improve the understanding and prediction of future global climate response due to changes in methane sources and sinks.

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Zhang, Xuebin

York University

($292,000 over 3 years, awarded 2005)

Project Title: The use of indices of climate extremes in climate change detection studies

How much of the rapid climate change in the latter half of the 20th Century is attributable to human activity? Dr. Zhang is trying to answer this question by using statistical models and information gleaned from monitoring stations, to determine climate change variables in extreme weather conditions. His project identifies indicators of extremes in which the anthropogenic climate change signal is most detectable, develops methods to aggregate station data, and conducts optimal 'fingerprinting' to assess evidence of changes in extremes and in the risks associated with the extremes. The results will contribute significantly to the knowledge that is needed to develop sound climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

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